Operation Epic Fury
30 MAR 2026 // DAY 30
Iran conflict // Scenario intelligence

April 6 deadline scenario explorer

Six branches // Global economy // NATO // Middle East security // Probabilities sum to 100%
HORMUZ KHARG SCENARIO PROBABILITY // APR 6 Deal reached 22% Third extension 20% Power grid struck 28% Kharg ground op 13% Naval escort 10% Regime fragmentation 7% KEY INDICATORS // LIVE $108 BRENT CRUDE // +40% VS PRE-WAR CONTESTED HORMUZ STATUS // PARTIAL TOLL REGIME DAY 30 OPERATION EPIC FURY // 28 FEB 2026 DEADLINE APR 6 8PM EASTERN ENERGY PLANT STRIKE PAUSE EXPIRES UNLESS EXTENDED
Scenario matrix
Scenario Prob Oil LNG Escalation Economy NATO Regime stability ME security
Probability methodology
Probabilities are derived from open-source intelligence analysis, current market pricing signals (oil futures curve, war-risk insurance spreads, tanker rate volatility), historical conflict analogy weighting (Gulf War 1991, Iraq 2003, Libya 2011), and editorial assessment of negotiating party statements and backchannel reporting as of 30 March 2026. All six scenarios sum to 100%. Probabilities are updated as new signals emerge and should be read as directional estimates, not precise forecasts.
Open-source signals
Primary
Market pricing
Oil futures // War-risk spreads
Historical analogy
Gulf War // Iraq 2003 // Libya 2011
Last updated
30 MAR 2026 // DAY 30