Operation Epic Fury
4 APR 2026 // DAY 35
Iran conflict // Scenario intelligence

April 6 deadline scenario explorer

Seven branches // 48-hour ultimatum active // Probabilities updated 4 April 2026
HORMUZ KHARG SCENARIO PROBABILITY // APR 6 Deal reached 8% Third extension 10% Power grid struck 45% Kharg ground op 22% Naval escort 8% Regime fragmentation 5% US-NATO rupture 5% KEY INDICATORS // LIVE $108 BRENT CRUDE // +40% VS PRE-WAR CONTESTED HORMUZ STATUS // PARTIAL TOLL REGIME DAY 35 OPERATION EPIC FURY // 28 FEB 2026 DEADLINE APR 6 8PM EASTERN48HRS REMAINING ENERGY PLANT STRIKE PAUSE EXPIRES UNLESS EXTENDED
Signal update // 4 Apr 2026 Trump posts 48-hour ultimatum on Truth Social: "all Hell will reign down on them." April 6 deadline now confirmed as live. Probabilities revised — power grid strike elevated to 45%.
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Scenario matrix
Click any row to select scenario
Scenario Prob Oil LNG Escalation Economy NATO Regime stability ME security
Probability methodology
Probabilities are derived from open-source intelligence analysis, current market pricing signals (oil futures curve, war-risk insurance spreads, tanker rate volatility), historical conflict analogy weighting (Gulf War 1991, Iraq 2003, Libya 2011), and editorial assessment of negotiating party statements and backchannel reporting as of 30 March 2026. All seven scenarios sum to 100%. Probabilities are updated as new signals emerge and should be read as directional estimates, not precise forecasts.
Open-source signals
Primary
Market pricing
Oil futures // War-risk spreads
Historical analogy
Gulf War // Iraq 2003 // Libya 2011
Last updated
4 APR 2026 // DAY 35